How to Read a Phoenix Real Estate Market Update (Without Getting Lost in the Numbers)
Five numbers tell you most of what you need: median sale price, days on market, months of supply, sale-to-list ratio, and the Cromford Market Index. Look at how each one is moving, not just where it is today, and look at your own neighborhood and price range, not just the whole metro.
Median sale price
The middle price of homes that sold in a given month. Half sold for more, half for less. It's useful for spotting trends, but it can jump around when a few expensive (or inexpensive) homes happen to close in the same month. In a small area like Arcadia, one big sale can move it a lot.
Days on market
How long homes sit before going under contract. Rising days on market usually means buyers have more time and more room to negotiate. Falling days on market usually means homes are moving faster.
Months of supply
How long it would take to sell every home currently for sale at the current pace, if nothing new were listed. Fewer months generally favors sellers. More months generally favors buyers.
Sale-to-list ratio
What homes sold for compared to their last list price. 100% means they sold at asking. Below 100% means buyers negotiated. Above 100% usually means multiple offers.
The Cromford Market Index
The Cromford Report tracks the Phoenix market using Arizona Regional MLS data. On its index, 100 means supply and demand are balanced. Below 100 gives buyers more of the edge; well above 100 gives sellers more of the edge. [Add the current reading for Greater Phoenix and Scottsdale, with the date.]
How to read them together
No single number tells the whole story. For example, prices can be flat while days on market climb and sale-to-list drops. That usually means sellers are negotiating more even if the headline price hasn't moved.
Also check which area and price range a report covers. The metro average blends very different markets. Your street and price point are what matter for your decision.
Where do these numbers come from?
The most reliable local sources are ARMLS (the Arizona Regional MLS) and the Cromford Report. National sites like Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com are useful too, but they measure things a little differently, so compare the same source over time.
The bottom line
Market updates are only useful if you know what you're looking at. Watch the trend, check the source, and zoom in on your neighborhood.
Want the numbers for your street? Reach out and I'll send you a local update for your area and price range.
Warmly, Molly
