Is Phoenix a Buyer's Market in 2026? What the Cromford Report Actually Says
Is Phoenix a buyer's market in 2026? Mostly, yes. The Cromford Report, the data source Phoenix agents actually use, started 2026 with its demand and supply index near 80, where 100 means a balanced market, and more than half of metro Phoenix closings between $200K and $600K now include seller concessions. But the answer flips depending on the neighborhood... Arcadia prices are still rising while 85008 has quietly become one of the most negotiable pockets in Phoenix.
I've been selling homes in Phoenix and Scottsdale for 11 years, and I can tell you the market has never been less of a one sentence answer than it is right now. So let's actually walk through the data.
What is the Cromford Report and why do agents trust it?
If you've never heard of it, The Cromford Report is the market analytics service that tracks supply and demand across metro Phoenix daily, using Arizona Regional MLS data. Its signature tool is the Cromford Market Index. The scale is simple. 100 means supply and demand are balanced. Below 100, buyers have the edge. Above 110, sellers do.
When national headlines talk about "the housing market," they're averaging the whole country. The Cromford Report measures our streets. That's why it's the number I check before I write an offer or price a listing.
So is Phoenix a buyer's market right now?
By the metro numbers... yes, more than it's been in years.
According to the Cromford Report's start of year analysis, the demand and supply index opened 2026 near 80. Their senior housing analyst Tina Tamboer called it "the best buyer opportunity we've seen in years," and here's the part I keep repeating to my buyers... it's driven by quiet demand, not a flood of desperate sellers. Nobody is giving homes away. But sellers are negotiating again.
The clearest proof is concessions. More than half of metro Phoenix transactions between $200,000 and $600,000 are closing with seller concessions right now. Rate buydowns. Closing costs. Repair credits that would have gotten your offer tossed in 2021.
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Are Phoenix home prices actually dropping in 2026?
Softening, more than dropping. Per Cromford Report commentary, homes under $1 million have softened roughly 2 to 3%, and the metro Phoenix median is still sitting about 4.8% below its June 2022 peak of $480,000. Some middle of the market neighborhoods remain 10 to 15% below their pandemic highs, while the luxury end keeps propping up the averages.
Translation... the "Phoenix prices are up" headline and the "Phoenix prices are down" headline are both true. It just depends on which slice of the market you're standing in.
What about Arcadia and 85008?
This is where it gets interesting, because these two neighborhoods sit ten minutes apart and are behaving like different planets.
Arcadia didn't get the buyer's market memo. The June 2026 median sale price in the 85018 corridor came in around $1,545,000, up 1.8% year over year, with homes taking about 74 days to sell. Longer days on market, but prices holding. If your plan is to wait for Arcadia to crash... the data says you'll be waiting a while.
85008, one zip code west, is the negotiable one. Zillow puts the typical home there at $378,780 as of June 2026, down 1.1% from last year, and 63.5% of June sales closed below list price. Same citrus lined streets, the Camelback views, a fraction of the price... and actual room to negotiate. It's why so many of our buyers who start their search in Arcadia end up writing offers in 85008.
[CMI THIS WEEK: optional second placeholder if you want to add the Scottsdale or Phoenix city level index from your Cromford login]
Is 2026 a good time to buy a house in Phoenix?
If you're waiting for a crash, the Cromford data isn't showing one... strong job growth in semiconductors and healthcare keeps a floor under demand. If you're waiting for rates to plummet, Tamboer's take is the one I'd frame: "It's not falling rates that matter, it's stable rates." Rates have held in the low 6% range, and stability is what lets you shop without the ground moving under you.
What 2026 gives buyers is negotiating power. Concessions on more than half of mid range deals. Sellers who will talk about repairs. Time to actually think before you offer. That combination hasn't existed in Phoenix since before 2020.
What should Phoenix sellers take from this?
Two things. Price right on day one, because the buyer who tours your home in 2026 has data and options, and homes that linger get negotiated hardest. And know your pocket... an Arcadia seller and an 85008 seller should be running two completely different playbooks this year.
If you want to know which playbook applies to your street, that's a fifteen minute conversation. My calendar's open.